As the 7/9 Deadline Approaches: US Tariffs 2025 Notices
As the 7/9 deadline approaches the Trump administration is stepping up pressure on U.S. trading partners to break off from trade agreements or see us reinstate higher tariffs which we had put forward in April. This deadline is for a 90 day pause which we put in of which we reduced the tariffs to 10% in order to have time for negotiations. Well now that the pause has ended we are to send out what we are calling tariff notices to many countries which warn they will see an increase in tariffs if we don’t come to an agreement.
President Trump reported that the tariff letters will go out as of Monday noon (Washington time) which at first will include about a dozern countries with more to follow. Also he said some trade deals have indeed been finalized which is what this communication is a mix of tariff letters and agreements. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reported that while the tariffs go into effect August 1st the admin is right now determined to set rates and finalized deals.
Failure to agree will see the return to the higher tariffs we had as of April 2 which in some cases have reached to 50% on certain products.
Global Markets React as Tariff Tensions Rise
This very aggressive timeline has brought out great anxiety in global markets and trade partners. Many countries are frantically trying to complete deals or lobby for more time. In Canada’s case they are trying to reach an agreement by July 21 which came about after talks which had been put on pause due to issues with Canada’s digital services tax. The U.K. has put in place a basic framework deal which is more of a point to start from rather than a final agreement.
The stakes are great. The 18 primary trade relationships that the admin have gone after account for 95% of the U.S. trade deficit. What we have seen from Trump’s trade actions is that global markets have been destabilized and supply chains disrupted which in turn has made many countries look to form agreements to avoid economic damage. Also adding to the tension is which countries will be included and what the exact tariff rates will be.
Trade Talks Progress Slowly as Deal Count Falls Short
Meanwhile what the Trump administration put forth as a goal of 90 deals in 90 days is in the face of reality. We are seeing play out that they will get around a dozen at best out of that time which is a result of the complexity and difficulty of the negotiations. Also we see from Treasury Secretary Bessent that there may be extension of the deadlines for what we are terming as the dedicated which are in good faith discussion.
Tariff Enforcement Looms as July 9 Nears
The administration is a part of a large scale effort to restructure global trade which in turn will see the U.S. trade deficit reduced, that said also there is issue of what is to become of the trade wars which we are seeing play out. In April when the tariffs were put forward we saw financial markets react very poorly which in turn brought about a temporary suspension of some of the more serious tariffs. At this point as we approach the deadline the Trump administration is putting out word that they are going to see these tariffs enforced unless we see large scale changes.
Trump’s Broader Agenda: Diplomacy and Political Tensions
In regard to trade tensions, also President Trump is into other large scale issues. He is to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu which will see discussion of the cease fire with Iran and the ongoing war in Gaza which also puts in to picture the administration’s role in Middle East diplomacy.
In other news Trump and Elon Musk have recently been at it again. Musk’s announcement of what he terms the “America Party” as a new political entity has set the community afire which in turn has got Trump to call out Musk “off the rails” and a “train wreck”.
This public battle has in turn had financial results Tesla saw its shares drop 7% in early trade following the announcement. Also which was not the case before, previously Musk’s political support for Trump was a plus for Tesla’s stock which is no longer the case as we see a 40% drop in Tesla shares from their December high. Also Tesla reported a 14% drop in vehicle deliveries in Q2 vs the same time a year prior.
Conclusion: Uncertainty Grows Around U.S. Tariffs 2025
In that which we are at present in the middle of the Trump administration is at a turn point in trade policy. July 9th is that which puts it all out there for U.S. trading partners which include many that are in the process of finalizing deals in an attempt to avoid punitive tariffs which in turn will raise the issue of trade tensions and disrupt global trade.
While some agreements are to be had it is the administration’s stand which is that higher tariffs will be put back in for countries which do not come to what is deemed as workable solutions by August. This is also a very uncertain time which we see play out in the markets and from government actions which are preparing for what may transpire.
References
- Reuters. “Trump Sends Warning Tariff Letters Ahead of Deadline,” July 2025
- Bloomberg. “Tariff Hikes Loom, Markets React as Trade Tensions Escalate,” July 2025
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